Thursday, November 29, 2007

Yingli Green is making some Green, and I'm not talking about Energy.


YGE - Yingli Green Solar. What a weird name. Probably not a lot of people pay attention to the alternative energy sector, but its about time you did. Some of the big names have gained 100 to 500 percent in less than a year.



Yingli is one of the leading vertically integrated photovoltaic (PV) product manufacturers in China. It has a current MW production rate of 200mw/year and is ramping that up to hit 600mw by the end of 2009 or early 2010. What this means is it is right inline to compete at the top level with First Solar. First solar is on a similar mission, as you can see by the graph shown below (this is FSLR's growth expectations):

Now can anyone tell me what FSLR stock price is? $220+. With most of FSLR's business coming from the United States, which we all know is slowing at least a little bit, their growth will eventually slow down as well. Yingli does a part of its business in the United States, but its only I believe right under 10%. The other 90% is coming from all over Europe, Japan, and China. Their growth is amazing and still in triple digits.
Some key notes to remember about Yingli:
  • Just beat earnings by 4 cents and raised guidance.
  • IPO'd in June of this year near $11.00
  • Current price: $26.00
  • Analysts targets: $194.00-$320.00 (finance yahoo.com)
  • Signed huge polysilicon deal
  • Major contracts with several big companies
The reason I believe this stock will overtake FSLR on its throne is that this company is spending a lot of money and time on research and development. The research they are doing is related to the polysilicon they need in order to survive. Polysilicon is the biggest factor for a solar company. This can hurt their gross margins dramatically (with price increases for demand) and and can also hurt their production if they can't get the amount of polysilicon needed to make their solar panels. Yingli is thinking outside the box. They are developing new technology to reduce significantly... and I mean significantly, the amount of polysilicon needed per each one of their units. This in turn will raise their gross margins and will be a huge asset if polysilicon is hard to come by in the near future. This stock is ready to considered to be valued like SPWR and FSLR.

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